Without further delay, let's break down this week's event, which is UFC Vegas 71: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes, taking place at the UFC Apex facility on Saturday.
UFC's reality show The Ultimate Fighter pits at least one future UFC fighter against others who might not be worthy, so handicapping their entrance into UFC can be difficult.
Brady Hiestand fits that mold perfectly. Hiestand had a -36 striking differential in the TUF 29 finale versus Ricky Turcios, and Turcios has gone on to put forth exactly a +0 differential in two fights since then.
We know Hiestand (4.50 takedowns per 15 with 47% accuracy) can wrestle. It's his lone chance to weather "Storm" this weekend. No, quite literally, I mean "Storm", the nickname of Danaa Batgarel.
This is a huge step backward in competition for Batgarel, the owner of three UFC victories. His last two foes had seven wins apiece compared to Hiestand's one, which was a sloppy win over Fernie Garcia (0-2 UFC).
The lone drama in this fight is if Hiestand can dent Batgarel's takedown defense. Danaa has ceded three on nine career attempts, and all were to Alatengheili (39% takedown accuracy). However, as we saw in the loss to Turcios, Hiestand's lack of grappling danger can be problematic for scoring even if he lands them.
Personally, the far more likely outcome here is Batgarel smashing Hiestand's 43% striking defense with -- by far -- the most power Brady has faced to this point. Batgarel's 1.11% knockdown rate can't be ignored.
Betting Verdict: With low striking defense, Batgarel's moneyline is showing value, but Batgarel by KO/TKO (+155) is an intriguing look for a fighter with three UFC knockouts already.
DFS Verdict: Even if Hiestand has success wrestling, his lack of submission danger makes it hard to see fantasy points from him, and Batgarel has never been submitted. Batgarel's powerful, voluminous upside is the side at $18.
Women's flyweight is one of the tamest divisions in UFC, but this fight won't be. This fight seeing under 1.5 rounds is +114 here.
That's because Priscila Cachoeira is a durable, unskilled warrior. "Zombie Girl" couldn't be more fitting given her -3.17 SSR. With that said, she's definitely improving. She defended 55% of strikes against Ji-Yeon Kim in 2022, and that was 74% in a first-round knockout of Ariane Lipski later in the year.
Plus, she's defended eight of her last nine takedown attempts faced, which will be the key against Karine Silva.
Silva's found two submissions on fighters a combined 3-5 in UFC, but she's the favorite here because Cachoeira has been submitted twice in UFC, but those two fighters, Valentina Shevchenko and Gillian Robertson, have 14 combined UFC wins via finish. It's a bit of a different level.
Frighteningly, Silva defended just 25% of significant strikes in her debut. Cachoeira's 0.86% knockdown rate is actually pretty significant for this division, and she just demolished Lipski (51% striking defense) with that power.
On top of improving efficiency, Cachoeira's sizable experience edge makes her a modest underdog proposition on a card with few.
Betting Verdict: Under 1.5 Rounds (+114) is the best bet in the fight. It encapsulates Silva's submission danger if the hype is real -- or Cacheoira's power if it's not. If forced to choose a side, it would be "Zombie Girl".
DFS Verdict: The value plays on this card are lacking, so I absolutely couldn't prioritize a volatile favorite like Silva. Cachoeira at $11 is there as a high-risk option, but this environment is what we want.
Arrows will be pointed in opposite directions when this battle of featherweight prospects is over.
Francis Marshall had to overcome a -8 striking differential to defeat Marcelo Rojo (0-3 UFC) in December, and this test should be even tougher. Marshall earned his contract with six takedowns on Dana White's Contender Series but landed just one of three attempts on Rojo.
A year ago, I'd have said Marshall would have walked through William Gomis in a matchup. I picked against Gomis with Dutch grappler Jarno Errens their respective debuts, but to the surprise of all, the French striker dominated those exchanges, too. He landed three of his five takedown attempts and defended both from Errens.
Marshall's advantage on the mat isn't nearly set in stone. Analytically, it's actually Gomis who has the edge in offensive and defensive efficiency both wrestling and striking. Gomis' lower SSR (+0.80) is more a product of a lack of striking volume as he dominated Errens on the mat.
Gomis also has an edge in reach, and I was looking to fade Marshall off his suspect debut. This will absolutely work as a spot to do so.
Betting Verdict: Gomis' moneyline would be the safest way to back him as we still learn his tendencies. In the long run, I still believe him to be a striker, so Gomis by KO/TKO (+600) could be worth a look.
DFS Verdict: Some of the favorites to come are no-doubters. Marshall is filled with doubt. This is a process punt to Gomis at $10 regardless of his other intriguing marks.
Oddsmakers have appropriately thrown their hands in the air for this battle of UFC brothers.
Mohammad Usman isn't just the brother of former welterweight champion Kamaru, but he's also your Ultimate Fighter 30 winner at heavyweight. Usman was getting destroyed (as the -3.57 SSR would indicate) in the finale against Zac Pauga before one powerful left hook.
"The Motor" is a tank at heavyweight, but he showed no wrestling or grappling in addition to a horrible striking accuracy (30%) and striking defense (36%). He'll need to improve considerably to win multiple UFC bouts.
The promotion threw him a bone with debutant Junior Tafa here. The brother of fellow heavyweight Justin (3-3 UFC) makes his debut from the same spot in Queensland, but I'm a bit more intrigued by his prospects than his big brother. Justin lumbers at the 265-pound limit, but Junior is quite a bit faster and smaller at 240 pounds. His future could be at light heavyweight.
However, given he trains with Justin, I'm not expecting a ton of wrestling and grappling from him, either.
This really is a toss-up for a heavyweight fight where one of these guys likely goes to sleep. Even knowing nothing about Junior Tafa, Usman's frightening peripherals against an unproven Pauga eliminate the benefit of the doubt.
Betting Verdict: Justin Tafa, who we've seen plenty of, would knock Usman out in Round 1 easily. I'll take a small flier with similar skills and plus athleticism that his younger brother could do the same at +340 odds. Betting heavily on this fight is insanity.
DFS Verdict: Responsible tournament players should mix exposure here to a fight with upside, but I can't put Usman's peripherals into a lineup. It's Tafa at $16 here.
This division is really only dusted off for bantamweight weight concerns or if Norma Dumont needs a fight.
Dumont is really the lone fighter on the roster that can't make 135 pounds, but there's some talent here. She handily defeated Felicia Spencer and Aspen Ladd, but the setback to Macy Chiasson -- a notably limited bantamweight -- in 2022 really leaves little doubt that featherweight "champion" Amanda Nunes would dispatch Dumont easily.
Karol Rosa is the latest bantamweight to make a move up to 145 to fight Dumont. Rosa is 5-1 in UFC but showed clear grappling limitations in a fight with bully wrestler Sara McMann. This probably is a path to an unorthodox title shot for someone who does have some impressive peripherals, including a +2.03 SSR, 56% striking accuracy, and 50% takedown accuracy.
Rosa -- by any measure -- is a better fighter than Chiasson, who employed a wrestling-heavy strategy to flummox Dumont. Rosa's shown the ability to do that, and Norma's last fight -- a decision win against the wholly inexperienced Danyelle Wolf -- doesn't mean anything for her prospects here.
Dumont has shown a bit of offensive wrestling (1.53 takedowns per 15), but I would favor Rosa there, too. She's good value in a fight that should be a gritty slog.
Betting Verdict: Rosa's ML (-106) is viable in a total dog-or-pass scenario. I'm right in line with the hefty -370 odds this fight goes over 2.5 rounds.
DFS Verdict: At $15, Rosa offers cap savings in a fight that doesn't project to be fantasy-relevant. She's fourth on this card in FanDuel points per minute (excl. bonuses), so if anyone makes it that way, it'd be her.
Danaa Batgarel (-148) vs. Brady Hiestand (+120)
Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danaa Batgerel | $18 | 5' 7" | 70" | 1.66 | 3.87 |
| Brady Hiestand | $13 | 5' 8" | 71" | -1.20 | 3.66 |
UFC's reality show The Ultimate Fighter pits at least one future UFC fighter against others who might not be worthy, so handicapping their entrance into UFC can be difficult.
Brady Hiestand fits that mold perfectly. Hiestand had a -36 striking differential in the TUF 29 finale versus Ricky Turcios, and Turcios has gone on to put forth exactly a +0 differential in two fights since then.
We know Hiestand (4.50 takedowns per 15 with 47% accuracy) can wrestle. It's his lone chance to weather "Storm" this weekend. No, quite literally, I mean "Storm", the nickname of Danaa Batgarel.
This is a huge step backward in competition for Batgarel, the owner of three UFC victories. His last two foes had seven wins apiece compared to Hiestand's one, which was a sloppy win over Fernie Garcia (0-2 UFC).
The lone drama in this fight is if Hiestand can dent Batgarel's takedown defense. Danaa has ceded three on nine career attempts, and all were to Alatengheili (39% takedown accuracy). However, as we saw in the loss to Turcios, Hiestand's lack of grappling danger can be problematic for scoring even if he lands them.
Personally, the far more likely outcome here is Batgarel smashing Hiestand's 43% striking defense with -- by far -- the most power Brady has faced to this point. Batgarel's 1.11% knockdown rate can't be ignored.
Betting Verdict: With low striking defense, Batgarel's moneyline is showing value, but Batgarel by KO/TKO (+155) is an intriguing look for a fighter with three UFC knockouts already.
DFS Verdict: Even if Hiestand has success wrestling, his lack of submission danger makes it hard to see fantasy points from him, and Batgarel has never been submitted. Batgarel's powerful, voluminous upside is the side at $18.
Karine Silva (-194) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+156)
Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karine Silva | $20 | 5' 5" | 67" | -1.46 | 3.31 |
| Priscila Cachoeira | $11 | 5' 7" | 65" | -3.17 | 2.89 |
Women's flyweight is one of the tamest divisions in UFC, but this fight won't be. This fight seeing under 1.5 rounds is +114 here.
That's because Priscila Cachoeira is a durable, unskilled warrior. "Zombie Girl" couldn't be more fitting given her -3.17 SSR. With that said, she's definitely improving. She defended 55% of strikes against Ji-Yeon Kim in 2022, and that was 74% in a first-round knockout of Ariane Lipski later in the year.
Plus, she's defended eight of her last nine takedown attempts faced, which will be the key against Karine Silva.
Silva's found two submissions on fighters a combined 3-5 in UFC, but she's the favorite here because Cachoeira has been submitted twice in UFC, but those two fighters, Valentina Shevchenko and Gillian Robertson, have 14 combined UFC wins via finish. It's a bit of a different level.
Frighteningly, Silva defended just 25% of significant strikes in her debut. Cachoeira's 0.86% knockdown rate is actually pretty significant for this division, and she just demolished Lipski (51% striking defense) with that power.
On top of improving efficiency, Cachoeira's sizable experience edge makes her a modest underdog proposition on a card with few.
Betting Verdict: Under 1.5 Rounds (+114) is the best bet in the fight. It encapsulates Silva's submission danger if the hype is real -- or Cacheoira's power if it's not. If forced to choose a side, it would be "Zombie Girl".
DFS Verdict: The value plays on this card are lacking, so I absolutely couldn't prioritize a volatile favorite like Silva. Cachoeira at $11 is there as a high-risk option, but this environment is what we want.
Francis Marshall (-215) vs. William Gomis (+172)
Men's Featherweight (145 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Marshall | $20 | 5' 9" | 72" | 1.31 | 5.74 |
| William Gomis | $10 | 6' 0" | 73" | 0.80 | 2.48 |
Arrows will be pointed in opposite directions when this battle of featherweight prospects is over.
Francis Marshall had to overcome a -8 striking differential to defeat Marcelo Rojo (0-3 UFC) in December, and this test should be even tougher. Marshall earned his contract with six takedowns on Dana White's Contender Series but landed just one of three attempts on Rojo.
A year ago, I'd have said Marshall would have walked through William Gomis in a matchup. I picked against Gomis with Dutch grappler Jarno Errens their respective debuts, but to the surprise of all, the French striker dominated those exchanges, too. He landed three of his five takedown attempts and defended both from Errens.
Marshall's advantage on the mat isn't nearly set in stone. Analytically, it's actually Gomis who has the edge in offensive and defensive efficiency both wrestling and striking. Gomis' lower SSR (+0.80) is more a product of a lack of striking volume as he dominated Errens on the mat.
Gomis also has an edge in reach, and I was looking to fade Marshall off his suspect debut. This will absolutely work as a spot to do so.
Betting Verdict: Gomis' moneyline would be the safest way to back him as we still learn his tendencies. In the long run, I still believe him to be a striker, so Gomis by KO/TKO (+600) could be worth a look.
DFS Verdict: Some of the favorites to come are no-doubters. Marshall is filled with doubt. This is a process punt to Gomis at $10 regardless of his other intriguing marks.
Junior Tafa (-110) vs. Mohammad Usman (-110)
Heavyweight (265 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Tafa | $16 | 6' 3" | -- | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohammed Usman | $13 | 6' 2" | 79" | -3.57 | 1.28 |
Oddsmakers have appropriately thrown their hands in the air for this battle of UFC brothers.
Mohammad Usman isn't just the brother of former welterweight champion Kamaru, but he's also your Ultimate Fighter 30 winner at heavyweight. Usman was getting destroyed (as the -3.57 SSR would indicate) in the finale against Zac Pauga before one powerful left hook.
"The Motor" is a tank at heavyweight, but he showed no wrestling or grappling in addition to a horrible striking accuracy (30%) and striking defense (36%). He'll need to improve considerably to win multiple UFC bouts.
The promotion threw him a bone with debutant Junior Tafa here. The brother of fellow heavyweight Justin (3-3 UFC) makes his debut from the same spot in Queensland, but I'm a bit more intrigued by his prospects than his big brother. Justin lumbers at the 265-pound limit, but Junior is quite a bit faster and smaller at 240 pounds. His future could be at light heavyweight.
However, given he trains with Justin, I'm not expecting a ton of wrestling and grappling from him, either.
This really is a toss-up for a heavyweight fight where one of these guys likely goes to sleep. Even knowing nothing about Junior Tafa, Usman's frightening peripherals against an unproven Pauga eliminate the benefit of the doubt.
Betting Verdict: Justin Tafa, who we've seen plenty of, would knock Usman out in Round 1 easily. I'll take a small flier with similar skills and plus athleticism that his younger brother could do the same at +340 odds. Betting heavily on this fight is insanity.
DFS Verdict: Responsible tournament players should mix exposure here to a fight with upside, but I can't put Usman's peripherals into a lineup. It's Tafa at $16 here.
Norma Dumont (-115) vs. Karol Rosa (-105)
Women's Featherweight (145 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norma Dumont | $17 | 5' 7" | 67" | 1.60 | 2.66 |
| Karol Rosa | $15 | 5' 5" | 67" | 2.03 | 4.35 |
This division is really only dusted off for bantamweight weight concerns or if Norma Dumont needs a fight.
Dumont is really the lone fighter on the roster that can't make 135 pounds, but there's some talent here. She handily defeated Felicia Spencer and Aspen Ladd, but the setback to Macy Chiasson -- a notably limited bantamweight -- in 2022 really leaves little doubt that featherweight "champion" Amanda Nunes would dispatch Dumont easily.
Karol Rosa is the latest bantamweight to make a move up to 145 to fight Dumont. Rosa is 5-1 in UFC but showed clear grappling limitations in a fight with bully wrestler Sara McMann. This probably is a path to an unorthodox title shot for someone who does have some impressive peripherals, including a +2.03 SSR, 56% striking accuracy, and 50% takedown accuracy.
Rosa -- by any measure -- is a better fighter than Chiasson, who employed a wrestling-heavy strategy to flummox Dumont. Rosa's shown the ability to do that, and Norma's last fight -- a decision win against the wholly inexperienced Danyelle Wolf -- doesn't mean anything for her prospects here.
Dumont has shown a bit of offensive wrestling (1.53 takedowns per 15), but I would favor Rosa there, too. She's good value in a fight that should be a gritty slog.
Betting Verdict: Rosa's ML (-106) is viable in a total dog-or-pass scenario. I'm right in line with the hefty -370 odds this fight goes over 2.5 rounds.
DFS Verdict: At $15, Rosa offers cap savings in a fight that doesn't project to be fantasy-relevant. She's fourth on this card in FanDuel points per minute (excl. bonuses), so if anyone makes it that way, it'd be her.
Montel Jackson (-650) vs. Rani Yahya (+440)
Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | $23 | 5' 10" | 75" | 1.99 | 3.55 |
| Rani Yahya | $8 | 5' 6" | 67" | -0.18 | 2.74 |
In a different era of UFC, Rani Yahya's submission skills were golden.
Yahya is still in the bantamweight record books for WEC/UFC finishes (21), and all were submissions. However, at 38 years old, Yahya's limited skillset hasn't aged well. He's got a -0.18 SSR with non-UFC caliber striking skills, and though he's still won back-to-back fights, the takedown accuracy (33%) is inefficient and fleeting.
In his athletic prime, Montel Jackson is a favorite here for good reason. "Quik" has never been professionally finished and enters off the biggest win of his career over striking ace Julio Arce. He's a guy I believe could hold the UFC title behind elite striking (+1.99 SSR) and wrestling (71% takedown accuracy) efficiency.
So long as Jackson minds his Ps and Qs and doesn't get caught in a Yahya trap, he should dominate this fight. Yahya's 24% takedown defense is horrid. He's relied on the fear of many going to the mat with him, but Jackson, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, won't be afraid.
Jackson also has seven knockdowns in his last three fights, so the aging Yahya is absolutely at risk of going to sleep here.
Betting Verdict: Given Yahya's competence with submissions, betting Jackson's ML (-670) or his inside-the-distance (ITD) number (-165) are picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer. I'll pass.
DFS Verdict: Jackson's slate-high $23 salary is worth every penny when he's a productive FanDuel scorer that's implied a 62.3% chance to end this one early.
Ricky Glenn (-144) vs. Christos Giagos (+118)
Lightweight (155 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Glenn | $19 | 6' 0" | 70" | 0.14 | 2.78 |
| Christos Giagos | $11 | 5' 10" | 71" | -0.06 | 3.10 |
This line is curiously short when Ricky Glenn's last two fights couldn't have gone better.
As a massive underdog, he knocked out Joaquim Silva, and he forced Grant Dawson into a draw from the same betting angle. Christos Giagos was just mauled in the first round by ranked contenders Arman Tsarukyan and Thiago Moises. Therefore, this could be a classic buy-low, sell-high spot, but the matchup truly seems it could go either way.
Giagos relies on his wrestling. He's secured at least three takedowns in each of his last four UFC wins. Glenn's takedown defense (68%) isn't bad on paper, but he did cede three to Grant Dawson and six to Dennis Bermudez. Those were the last two fighters with multiple attempts.
As evidenced by the +0.14 SSR, Glenn's striking isn't exactly dominant, though. He lands just 43% of his significant strikes. Despite the lower-than-ideal 48% striking defense, Giagos has surrendered just one knockdown in UFC to the ranked Tsaruykan. Glenn doesn't have that power.
While Glenn has never been knocked out, he's been submitted twice. Giagos has five pro submissions. These aging lightweights don't provide a lot of clarity, but I'd much rather roll the dice with the underdog.
Betting Verdict: From a value perspective, Glenn's stock couldn't be much higher, and Giagos' couldn't be much lower. That could be why there's a massive betting split in this fight with Giagos getting the sharp money. I've added a unit at +118, too.
DFS Verdict: Glenn has topped 55 FanDuel points just once in his past five bouts. There's no reason to go there on this slate, so Giagos at $11 is another process punt.
Jeremiah Wells (-110) vs. Matthew Semelsberger (-110)
Welterweight (170 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Wells | $16 | 5' 9" | 74" | 2.06 | 3.15 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | $15 | 6' 1" | 75" | 0.03 | 3.38 |
Jeremiah Wells is a classic example of riding an improbable hot streak to start their career.
After getting manhandled in Round 1 by Warlley Alves, Wells found a come-from-behind knockout only to be followed by two more finishes over 34-year-old, one-dimensional Mike Mathetha and 38-year-old Court McGee. Wells is sneaky old himself (36) getting set to face Matthew Semeslberger in his MMA prime.
Wells' biggest issue that he hasn't paid for is his defense. His 32% striking defense is poor, and he's faced (and defended) just one takedown attempt. "Semi the Jedi" presents plenty of problems with his high-level offense.
He lands 4.60 significant strikes per minute on modest 42% accuracy, and his changeup is averaging 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes on 77% accuracy. Semi also hits like a semi-truck, holding a massive 2.01% knockdown rate with the promotion so far.
I've got little-to-no footage of Wells at this tier of welterweight as he blitzed through his first three fights in less than 11 minutes. Semelsberger has had 75 minutes in the tank against fighters with multiple UFC wins. I trust his experience here.
Betting Verdict: If regression ever existed in principle, it would be Wells' poor striking defense meeting Semelsberger's massive power. I've attacked this pick 'em moneyline with a unit, but Semi by KO/TKO (+300) is equally appealing.
DFS Verdict: This fight is -180 to go over 1.5 rounds; not 2.5. Expecting an early finish, this isn't a fight to stack, but both sides have explosive DFS upside. For the reasons above, I prefer Semelsberger at $15.
Iasmin Lucindo (-355) vs. Brogan Walker (+270)
Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | $21 | 5' 3" | 66" | -1.33 | 2.64 |
| Brogan Walker | $9 | 5' 4" | 67" | -1.72 | 1.29 |
After Julianna Miller's disastrous-bordering-on-unprofessional debut last month as The Ultimate Fighter 30 winner, I was fading Brogan Walker, her opponent in the finale, no matter what in Walker's next fight.
Luckily, she's against a prospect, Iasmin Lucindo, that I wanted to buy anyway. Lucindo's late-notice debut against Yazmin Jauregui hasn't aged poorly at all when Jauregui flattened Istela Nunes last December. Lucindo had a 60% striking defense against the higher-regarded prospect.
Walker's date with Miller left many thinking Miller would be in the same tier. Brogan defended just 36% of Miller's significant strikes and failed to defend all three takedowns, landing just 30 significant strikes herself.
Lucindo's debut came at 115 pounds, but that's just about the only red flag in what's otherwise a solid profile considering what she was up against in her debut. She's got more high-level experience than Juliana Miller, so this really bodes well for her to get a first victory in UFC.
Betting Verdict: Lucindo's pro finishing rate is 76.9%, and Walker was just finished in her debut. Her ITD odds (+220) are far too long for her chances considering her advantages over Miller.
DFS Verdict: Though this fight has -210 odds to go the full distance, I am higher on Lucindo's ITD odds as stated. Think she's a sneaky MVP candidate at $21.
Bobby Green (-250) vs. Jared Gordon (+198)
Lightweight (155 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Green | $21 | 5' 10" | 71" | 2.32 | 4.21 |
| Jared Gordon | $10 | 5' 9" | 68" | 2.15 | 4.05 |
With no podcast this week, this is Austin's Fight of the Night for those in print. We'll want to stack this guy in bunches for DFS.
Both of these strikers land over 5.25 significant strikes per minute with at least 52% accuracy. They're usually busting up other fighters but will be forced to battle each other here.
Bobby Green is the deserved favorite in a projected striking match. He's a natural lightweight with a three-inch reach edge, and Green has fought better competition. He's faced champion Islam Makhachev and just fought Drew Dober in a ranked battle.
Jared Gordon used to fight at 145 pounds, and he's always been a bit undersized for this division. Though he realistically beat Paddy Pimblett outside of a horrible decision, this is a massive step up in competition, but it's needed.
Gordon (2.00 takedowns per 15) would likely be the one who'd like to wrestle and minimize Green's reach advantage, but Bobby's well-tested 72% takedown defense has held sturdy against most challengers.
This betting number feels a bit large when this fight is headed to a probable decision. Gordon has been to a decision in five of his last seven fights. Green has seen the cards in 11 of his last 14. With that the case and this being Green's retirement fight, I'd sooner bet Jared Gordon to get a bit of good karma with a decision his way.
Betting Verdict: This fight figures to be a tit-for-tat exchange that sees the cards. With the state of MMA judging in 2023, Gordon shouldn't be this heavy of an underdog if that's the case. It's anyone's guess what fight the judges watch; Gordon by Points (+370) is the dart.
DFS Verdict: Yes. The answer is yes. Two high-volume strikers -- with potential takedowns mixed in from Gordon. Green's win equity is higher for consideration at MVP, but Gordon's salary and floor are equally appealing.
Brad Tavares (-168) vs. Bruno Silva (+136)
Middleweight (185 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | $18 | 6' 1" | 74" | 0.29 | 2.32 |
| Bruno Silva | $12 | 6' 0" | 74" | -0.27 | 2.85 |
This is the type of fight Brad Tavares needs.
As someone who views things through a pace and efficiency lens, Tavares gets left behind. He averages just 3.30 significant strikes per minute and has gone to a decision in four of his last five. However, his SSR is positive for a reason, and his 56% striking defense is that much better considering all seven of his losses in UFC have come to fighters ranked at some stage of their career.
I'm not sure Bruno Silva will get there. Silva's spooky power shined through in knockouts of Wellington Turman, Jordan Wright, and Andrew Sanchez, but there was an average striking defense of 42% between those three. He was dusted by Alex Pereira and grappler Gerald Meerschaert.
GM3 even scored a knockdown because Silva, with reckless abandon, has charged forward with a 44% striking defense. He's landing less than half of the nine significant strikes per minute he attempts to do so, which just won't work against higher-level guys.
Silva is a popular underdog pick this week from his ability to survive against Pereira, but this fight could look a lot like that one. "Blindado" charges forward into a better striker and pays for it.
Betting Verdict: Meerschaert earned a knockdown on Silva's poor striking defense to set up his submission last year. Tavares, without those submission skills, would likely finish this one by KO/TKO (+320).
DFS Verdict: Taveras' volume is too much of a concern to expect an MVP-caliber performance, but live for a knockout, he's an excellent flex play at a fair $18 salary.
Curtis Blaydes (-172) vs. Sergei Pavlovich (+140)
Heavyweight (265 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | $22 | 6' 4" | 80" | 1.84 | 4.54 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | $14 | 6' 3" | 84" | 3.77 | 4.84 |
The main event has a modest betting line, but this fight won't be competitive. We just don't know which side will win out.
Sergei Pavlovich is the new boogeyman at heavyweight. Averaging 8.07 significant strikes per minute on 51% accuracy, he's needed six total minutes and four knockdowns to dispatch three ranked foes since returning in 2022. He's come with such ferocious pace, accuracy, and power that he's melted two other knockout legends, Tai Tuivasa and Derrick Lewis, himself.
That's the last thing Curtis Blaydes needed. Arguably the most skilled heavyweight this side of Jon Jones, all three of Blaydes' UFC losses have come via knockout. His chin has been his worst enemy, but if able to survive the incoming punches, he's ragdolled other heavyweights at 6.05 takedowns per 15 minutes on ridiculous 53% efficiency.
This is a clear two-outcome fight. Pavlovich likely comes out guns blazing -- as he always does -- and knocks out the fragile Blaydes, or Blaydes can secure a takedown on Pavlovich, who hasn't been asked to grapple whatsoever in UFC. Blaydes likely secures mount position quickly and demolishes him.
Those outcomes are pretty equally likely, so I would assess the value lies with Pavlovich, but I'm attacking this volatile fight through two long-range props only.
Betting Verdict: Due to this stark clash of styles, I'll combine Pavlovich by Round 1 KO/TKO (+340) with Blaydes by Submission (+900) to encompass that dynamic. This fight is also -125 to end in the first round, which is right in line with my stuff.
DFS Verdict: Pavlovich's salary really isn't a value when half of his range of outcomes encompass very few points. This type of quick-finish environment deserves exposure to both in tournaments, but I prefer Jackson, Lucindo, and Batgarel at MVP.
